The electoral battle between Lula and Bolsonaro is approaching the technical tie before the second round in Brazil

Brazil is holding its breath in the face of increasingly tight presidential elections. A week and a half before the final vote, leftist former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva continues to lead the polls, but his rival, current president Jair Bolsonaro, has been closing the gap as the weeks progressed. The latest poll of Datafolha, published this Wednesday, gives Lula 49% of the vote and Bolsonaro 45%. That result shows a technical tie scenario if the margin of error is taken into account.

Bolsonaro is scratching points little by little. Last week, the poll of Datafolha it showed him with 44% of the total supports. In this one has risen one. If blank or invalid votes are removed from the equation, the extreme rightist is placed with 48% of the preferences, and steals a point from Lula, with 52%. The latest survey of ipec for Balloon, the other great gauge of the electoral temperature, also shows the far-right gaining ground. Bolsonaro has a 43% voting intention, one point more than a week ago, while Lula drops from 51% to 50%.

The polls were held in the heat of the first electoral debate in which the candidates faced each other alone. Although insults and accusations flew during the duel, the candidates made an effort to avoid the outbursts of anger and the harsh tone that marked the previous debates. Lula criticized his rival for his management of the pandemic, while Bolsonaro rubbed him the corruption cases of the past. There was no clear winner.

Moreover, the campaign is mired in a constant stream of controversial videos and fake news. The latest scandal has been a recording in which Bolsonaro comes out talking about his visit to the house of some Venezuelan teenagers who allegedly prostituted themselves. The president’s campaign had to buy advertising on Google that said “Bolsonaro is NOT a pederast.” Lula, whom the far-right’s followers have come to accuse of wanting to close churches, continues trying to ingratiate himself with the evangelical voter and this Wednesday he published a letter in which he declared himself against abortion.

With such a tight race, undecided voters and those who plan to vote blank or simply not go to the polls can play a decisive role. Although 94% of voters say they already know who to vote for, the poll of Datafolha shows that there is 1% undecided and 4% blank votes. the of ipec estimates 5% undecided and 2% who do not answer the questions. The candidate who manages to convince them can take the victory. In the first round, held on October 2, there were 21% abstentions, a huge reserve of votes that the campaigns are seeking to mobilize in their favor.

At this point, no one rules out a surprise on Election Day. The left dreamed of a victory in the first round, but in the end it was just under two points short of 50%. Bolsonaro achieved 43%, when the polls gave him 35%. Among the reasons that may explain this underestimation of the Bolsonarista vote are the last-minute decisions and the reluctance of some voters to admit that they support the far-right. Bolsonaro has accused the polling companies of wanting to favor his rival. At the same time, deputies who support the government have proposed punishing pollsters whose polls diverge from the real results, beyond the margin of error, with up to 10 years in prison.

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