The credit rating agency S&P Global Ratings published this Monday its quarterly economic forecasts for Europe in which it significantly lowers the forecasts for the war in Ukraine and its consequences.
In the case of Spain, the firm considers that the country will grow by 4.5% in 2022, which represents an improvement of four tenths compared to June estimates. However, for 2023 it has cut the estimate by 1.6 points, to 1.1%.
This large cut has not prevented Spain from remaining the leader in growth among the main countries of the euro zone for both this and the next. The block of Nineteen will grow 3.1% this year (five tenths more), but 0.3% next (1.6 points less).
Among the rest of the countries, Germany will grow 1.5% (four tenths less) this year, while France will grow 2.4% (two tenths less); Italy, 3.4% (six tenths more); and the Netherlands, 4.3% (1.7 points more).
For 2023, the adjustment is drastic for Germany and Italy, which will enter a recession with a decrease of 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively, compared to the growth of 2% and 1.9% that were forecast a few years ago. three months. The cut for the forecast for France has been one and a half points, up to a growth of 0.2%, while the Netherlands will advance 0.2% (1.4 points less).
In any case, S&P Global has highlighted that there are positive points, such as the labor market, which is being “unusually strong”, with record employment levels.
With respect to Spain, the agency has lowered its unemployment forecast for the end of the year by five tenths, to 12.8%, while for 2023 the data has been adjusted one tenth downward, to 12.9% .
Source: Europa Press
