FUkrainian officials have assured that Russian forces are aiming to capture Bakhmut before the first anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine.
But this, according to the Institute for the Study of Warfare, would require a rate of Russian advance significantly higher than anything we have seen for many months.
The director of the Wagner Group recently stated that he expects his fighters to encircle Bakhmut in March or April. Practical evaluations of Yevgeny Prigozhin reports on Russian advances in the Bajhmut area have generally been closer to tactical reality than those forecasting a rapid Russian advance.
Russian forces do not appear to be accelerating their pace of advance around Bakhmut and it is unlikely that they will reach this objective on the announced February 24.
Ukrainian forces could always decide that the costs associated with holding Bakhmut are too high and strategically withdraw from the city, although Ukrainian leaders continue to indicate that they intend to hold the city.
The UK MoD has released a casualty estimate: The Russian MoD and mercenary forces have likely suffered up to 200,000 casualties since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This probably includes approximately forty to sixty thousand deaths.
The mercenary forces of the Wagner group have deployed a large number of conscripted inmates. These would likely have experienced a casualty rate of up to 50%.
Based on modern combat assessments, these numbers represent a high ratio of combatants killed compared to wounded. Something almost certainly motivated by medical services for the seriously insufficient troops.
Source: Euronews Español
