Von der Leyen and Macron in China: a visit with a lot at stake

After the new doctrine of Ursula von der Leyen reassessing the European Union’s diplomatic and economic ties with China, all eyes are now on her joint trip with the French president Emmanuel Macron to the Chinese capital, with much at stake. In 2022, China was the third partner of the Union in exports of goods, and the first in imports.

For alicja bachulskafrom the European Center for Foreign Policy, this trip will be used by Xi Jinping to try to convince some of the European leaders to go back to business.

“We have the most important players, such as Germany and France,” explains Bachulska, “and the business circles of these two countries have a very high interest, really very high, in doing business again. And with Macron, this business delegation is definitely a signal to Beijing that economic cooperation remains high on the Paris agenda. But also, at the level of the EU as a whole. And this was very visible in von der Leyen’s speech: Europe is not for dissociation, that American-style dissociation.”

Bachulska also underlines that it is, as described by Von der Leyen herself, reduce risksBut that won’t be easy at all.

“This will be very, very difficult in practice,” Bachulska confesses, “given the extent of Xi Jinping’s revisionism and the way our economy has become politicized in the last decade. And also given his ambitions to create this dependency to protect China from external shocks”.

Macron’s role

The intention of Emmanuel Macron is to discourage China from getting any closer to Russia. For experts, there is little room for maneuver, since the nature of Sino-Russian relations is very strategic.

Antoine Bondaza tenured professor at the Paris Institute of Political Studies, believes that Macron and von der Leyen can only warn Beijing of the possible consequences in case of increased military support for Russia. They should also, of course, try to get more clarity on the likelihood of Russia deploying nuclear weapons in Belarus.

“President Macron has, of course, the legitimacy to ask and raise the issue with China for two reasons,” Bondaz explains. “First of all, France is, of course, a nuclear weapons state. And secondly, France, unlike the United States and the United Kingdom, is not part of any nuclear sharing agreement like these two countries.”

“I think the French president should be very aware of the limited influence he has over Xi Jinping,” Bondaz continues. “France, compared to China, is today a lightweight, even though it is a permanent member of the Security Council. The relationship is highly asymmetrical and there is little that Macron can convince Xi Jinping. It is good to try, to keep the communication channel open, but we must be very realistic in our expectations and keep them very limited,” concludes the expert.

Both Bondaz and Bachulska agree that sensitive technologies are key in this relationship, although this does not mean that China has the upper hand, since it continues to be an exporting power and depends to a large extent on maintaining these exports and have access to European markets.

On the other hand, European policy will focus more on having its own strategy to enjoy these cutting-edge technologies without having to depend on one or another actor.