NewsUSAThe war in Ukraine and the unacknowledged interests of the powers

The war in Ukraine and the unacknowledged interests of the powers

It has been an intense week for Ukraine, in the diplomatic field with the words of the presidents of China and Brazil and on the battlefield with Vladimir Putin’s missiles against the cities. They talk about peace, they make war, and behind everything there are many unacknowledged but obvious desires. An attempt to understand them follows.

The Chinese president has finally called his Ukrainian counterpart. The regime seeks to establish itself in the eyes of the world, and especially of the global south, as a driving force for pacification. His rhetorical position is a 12-point document published on the occasion of the anniversary of the invasion that is nothing more than a statement of principles that does not contribute anything in terms of promoting a negotiation. His actual position says much more than that document. What it shows is a power that is not supplying Russia with weapons, for the moment, but that is not using its influence on it to stop its aggression either. On the contrary, it gives him economic oxygen, close military ties – including a visit by his defense minister to Moscow – and diplomats of various kinds. In short, he is not a neutral actor, but clearly aligned with Russia. What is his strategic calculation? Probably that he does not want any results that are harmful to Putin, none that are positive for the West, that would allow Ukraine to integrate into that democratic and geopolitical sphere, which would be a great success for the Western pole. He wants the US to remain entangled in Europe, would love to drive a wedge between the EU and US amid war fatigue, and doesn’t dislike cheap oil and gas from Russia.

President Lula has also been a protagonist this week with his attempts to promote peace. His action, of course, is deserving of an entirely different attention than that due to the moves of the Chinese regime. Peace is light years away, but the attempt to seek it deserves praise in the abstract, and it is good that a democrat does it. Naturally, the problem is how. His rhetorical approach is indigestible to many in democratic countries, which has hurt his charisma. Along with the words of peace, he has issued many others, according to which arming Ukraine to defend itself means adding fuel to the fire for him more than preventing the triumph of an aggressor dictatorship; according to which Zelensky is equally responsible for the war as Putin, and two do not fight if one does not want to. This is what he has said, and what he does not say also weighs. In an interview with this newspaper, Lula uttered vibrant words in defense of democracy in the face of the threat from the ultra-right, but he avoided even the most minimal and veiled criticism of the oppressive Chinese regime, avoiding the bulge in a question that questioned him about that question. What is his strategic calculation? It is possible to think that this silence – and everything that has emerged from his visit to Beijing – speaks more of his great interest in strengthening the relationship with China than of prudence due to issues related to the war in Ukraine.

The US, of course, also has its unexplained calculations. It can be guessed that he is interested in the immense wear and tear of an adversary like Russia in a conflict in which Washington does not suffer casualties, that feeling of crisis that tends to close the ranks of his alliances in the world suits him, he does not dislike the big shot to gas exports to Europe. These are all very credible assumptions. This, however, is not the same as saying that this war is simply in her interests. At the very least, she would rather not have to keep an eye on tragedies in Europe when what she really cares about is focusing on China.

The global south too, of course, has its calculations not openly stated in this scenario. It is a heterogeneous group of countries that have suffered the excesses of the powers of the North for a long time. From any point of view, it is undeniable that they deserve a new recognition in the world order. This is not incompatible with the fact that many of them develop cold strategic reflections, perhaps with a hypocritical point, in the face of an invasion that is nothing more than a colonial war, and in the face of the great pulse of superpowers USA / China. In both dynamics, the great powers seek allies. Today everyone calculates how, in what position, to get more advantage, getting closer to one, to another, making themselves desired at an intermediate point. India deserves a specific mention within the lax concept of the global south, which reinforces its profile, rubs shoulders with the West before China, buys cheap oil from Russia and tries to establish itself as a reference in that heterogeneous galaxy, with a size that gives it a great advantage over to Brazil, and with a democratic quality in strong erosion.

The EU remains. What is your hidden wish? Hard to say. Not because we have a higher moral character than others, but because we have 27 different points of view, in a tiring process of harmonization. A united and quite effective reaction to the Russian aggression has been achieved. We are preparing the reflection on how to interact with China and, ultimately, where to position ourselves on the global board. We have taken steps forward, but we are still far from having a truly shared strategic vision. Therefore, we also have no hidden desires that can be defined.

Those who say that it is not wise to radically polarize the world between a bloc of democracies and another of autocracies are right. Cooperation on many issues is necessary and possible, and a myopic ideological confrontation would burn up a precious space for pragmatic collaboration that does not have to disappear. Even on issues such as the war in Ukraine, dialogue can and should be sought, in search of solutions, with those ―even if they are authoritarian regimes― who recognize basic elements of international law such as the sovereignty and territorial integrity of States.

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