NewsEuropeThe French National Assembly decides this Monday the future of the pension law and the Macron government

The French National Assembly decides this Monday the future of the pension law and the Macron government

They are, on paper, motions of no confidence against the government of the French Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, and against the unpopular pension reform. In reality, the recipient of the vote this Monday in the National Assembly is the president, Emmanuel Macron. His popularity is at the lowest level since the revolt of the yellow vestsin 2018. And it is the object of the ire of those who have been demonstrating and striking for weeks against the law that will increase the retirement age from 62 to 64 years.

When this Monday, after 4:00 p.m., the motions begin to be debated to be voted on later, all eyes will be on Los Republicanos (LR). It is the old party of the moderate right, sister formation of the Spanish PP which, under its current acronyms or with others, has produced presidents such as Nicolas Sarkozy and Jacques Chirac. Since Macron captured the Elysee in 2017, they have been an erratic and diminished party, though they still control the Senate and some big cities.

The fate of the transpartisan motion of no confidence will depend on how the 61 deputies of Los Republicanos, the fourth group in the National Assembly, vote. The left, the extreme right of the National Regrouping (RN) and the small group of regionalists and centrists are not enough without the votes of a part of Los Republicanos.

The motions are the opposition’s response to Macron’s decision, last Thursday, to resort to article 49.3 of the Constitution to impose the pension reform without a vote. When the Government uses 49.3 to adopt a law, the only way to stop it is to win a vote of no confidence. Then the law falls and the government falls. But not Macron, immovable until the end of his term in 2027.

The president opted for the expeditious route of 49.3 when verifying that he lacked sufficient votes in the chamber to adopt the reform, which he considers essential for his credibility as a reformist president and for the financial viability of the pension system. The opposition questions the urgency invoked by the Government to increase the retirement age, and maintains that the reform is socially unfair and will harm the working classes.

Since the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958, there have been more than 100 motions for caesura, but only one has succeeded: the one that brought down the government of George Pompidou in 1962. General Charles de Gaulle dissolved the Assembly, called for new legislation, he revalidated the majority and Pompidou continued as prime minister.

A calculation published by the magazine Le Grand Continent points out that the opposition lacks 27 votes to reach 287. And 27 is the number of LR deputies who have avoided explicitly rejecting the motion of no confidence, although this does not mean that in the end they will support it with their vote. In favour, in fact, only four have said they would vote. This adds up to 264 votes, far from the majority. Another calculation, from Radio France, anticipates between 261 and 271 yeses.

Le Maire, when speaking of politicking, denounced the contradiction of the Republicans, who have spent years promising to raise the retirement age to 65 years. If Macron gave up on submitting the law to the National Assembly on Thursday, it was because he realized that a handful of LR deputies were going to vote against it. And they were going to vote against it despite the fact that the reform coincides with their ideology and despite the fact that the party leaders had agreed with the government to support it.

Macron is confident that these deputies, out of self-interest, avoid supporting the motion. If it wins, the president has indicated that he will dissolve the National Assembly and call new legislative elections. In early elections, the rebel deputies could pay dearly for their contradictions and lose their seats.

The president of the National Regroupment, Jordan Bardella, launched an offer to these deputies on Friday. “The set of opposition movements must give preference to the interest of the French, to the interest of France, to the interest of the social model of the French, over the interest of the political parties,” he urged on the C8 chain. If they support the motion, he added, and if there are new elections, the RN will not present candidates in their districts. Without a competitor on the far right, it would be easier for them, in theory, to get re-elected.

Fourth night of spontaneous protests, and prolonged strikes in various sectors

Spontaneous demonstrations in the streets of France and strikes in various sectors have marked the weekend prior to the vote, in the National Assembly, of two motions of censure against the Government and against the pension reform.
For the fourth night in a row, unauthorized protests were called in Paris and other cities on Sunday. Since Thursday, when the Government imposed the reform by evading the parliamentary vote, there have been riots and garbage and street furniture have been set on fire. The office in Nice of the president of Los Republicanos, Eric Ciotti, woke up on Sunday with a broken window. Ciotti is in favor of the reform and against the motion of no confidence. Other deputies have denounced threats.

Meanwhile, strikes continued in key sectors such as transport or energy. The SNCF, the public railway company, has been on strike for two weeks. The municipal cleaning services in Paris also have almost 15 days of strikes. In the capital, tons of garbage fill the sidewalks and begin to become part of the usual landscape. All despite the government order to forcefully mobilize workers to proceed to remove them. In addition, the largest oil refinery in France, in Normandy, has been blocked since Friday, although for now it has not affected the power supply.

This Monday, coinciding with the decisive vote in the National Assembly, a strike of vigilantes in Education has been called, which may affect the baccalaureate exams that take place on the same day. The unions have called for a national mobilization next Thursday; It will be the eighth since protests against the law began in January.

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