The EU is on track to exceed the 2030 renewable energy target

The European Union is on track to exceed its 2030 target for clean energy technologies, as deployment of solar power and heat pumps spiked last year due to Russia’s war in Ukraine and the energy crisis it unleashed, according to a new report.

Brussels set a target of 40% in renewable energy by 2030 in the package fit for 55 which he filed in the summer of 2021, but the Twenty-seven is projected to reach 45%, according to a report published Tuesday by Ember.

This is partly due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022 and exacerbated a Europe-wide energy crisis, as European economies tried to divest themselves of Russian fossil fuels and Moscow stopped supplying gas to many countries.

In response, European countries “accelerated” their energy transition, according to the independent group of energy experts, with investment in clean technologies rising by almost a third year-on-year to new all-time highs.

That was the case for solar power, with more than 40 GW installed across the EU last year, an increase of 47% over the previous year. It is estimated that in 2023 the new capacity will exceed 50 GW.

This exponential growth should allow the Fit for 55 solar goal to be reached four years earlier, in 2026. Germany, Spain, Poland, Italy, the Netherlands and France are the countries that will contribute the most solar energy.

Last year also saw significant growth in both heat pumps and electric vehicles.

In 2022, 3 million heat pumps were sold across the EU, a record number that is equivalent to around 4 billion cubic meters of natural gas. In this way, the total fleet stood at around 20 million, thus reaching the intermediate target set for 2026.

Projections now put the number of heat pumps installed in 2030 at between 60 and 72 million, significantly higher than the 40 million units forecast in the package.”fit for 55“.

Meanwhile, EV sales continued to rise despite a difficult year for the broader auto industry. Now they are confident that they will be able to achieve the goal of electrifying transport, which they plan to increase fivefold by 2030.

Unlike wind, solar failed to defy expectations last year and new onshore installed capacity fell short of target fit-for-55, despite an increase of 40% over the previous year. The outlook for offshore wind is more positive, with projects under development adding 70.5 GW of capacity, close to the new interim target set earlier this year of 111 GW by the end of the decade.

For Ember, the positive trends observed in the last 12 months should prompt the EU to revise its targets upwards.

Elisabeth Cremona, Ember’s climate and energy data analyst, says: “Since the package was presented fit-for-55 Eighteen months ago, a new energy reality has unfolded across Europe, with record investments in clean energy reflecting economic and security imperatives to scale up renewables.”

“According to forecasts, clean technologies will exceed Fit-for-55 expectations, putting the EU on track towards a minimum of 45% renewable energy by 2030. As 40% renewable energy no longer reflects where we are going we lead, continuing with the lowest objective means aiming for failure,” he added.

Both the European Commission and the European Parliament have been in favor of raising the targets before the final negotiations on the EU ceiling on renewable energy for 2030, scheduled for March. Some Member States would prefer the target to remain unchanged at “at least 40%”.