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Scholz equilibria

The fact that a negotiating meeting of the German coalition government lasted 30 hours a few days ago gives an accurate picture of the difficulties that Chancellor Olaf Scholz is encountering in order to maintain unity among the forces that have governed the country since end of 2021. Although in public the head of government repeatedly denies that the growing disagreements between the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens and the liberals of the FDP mean that the coalition has entered a crisis, the truth is that the partners of the SPD each Sometimes they adopt tougher positions when it comes to expressing themselves on fundamental issues such as the profound economic and energy transformation in which Germany has embarked or fiscal rules. The great fissure arises between the acceleration of the transition towards a decarbonized economy, desired by the Greens, and the fiscal stability defended at all costs by the FDP. Public spending is the great backdrop, but not only, of that battle.

Germany has a long tradition of coalition governments that has, at times, included the two major parties of the center-right and center-left (the most recent was between 2013 and 2021, under the presidency of Angela Merkel). Since the establishment of the Federal Republic in 1949 there has only been a relatively long period, between 1960 and 1961, in which the Government, with Konrad Adenauer, was monocolor. It can be said that the coalition is a natural form of government in Germany, which has not excluded strong tensions, dramatic ruptures and even betrayals. And it reveals the enormous complexity of doing politics among forces that have different objectives and the obligation to respond to electorates with different demands.

Scholz is facing enormous challenges: the global crisis generated by the pandemic and riveted by the war in Ukraine with its added energy, but also the rise of populism (Meloni’s victory in Italy is an ominous sign) and internal political issues such as security or social benefits. The Liberals have chained several defeats in local elections, and the bases of the party are putting pressure on their leader, Economy Minister Christian Linder, to be more aggressive against the approaches of environmentalists, who seek a green transformation of the economy and the industry. The tensions affect crucial issues of European policy, from military aid to Ukraine to the proposal to reform the Stability Pact, the cap on gas or the ban on combustion cars. Scholz also has an added problem: the Franco-German axis, the traditional engine of the EU, is seized with deep differences between the chancellor and Macron. Both there and above all internally —with the contradictions in the coalition increasingly visible— Scholz is forced to seek increasingly difficult balances.

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