From the winter war to the spring offensive; After a year of fighting, the conflict in Ukraine is entering a potentially decisive phase.
After a few months in which fighting along the front line was intense but gradual, analysts believe that both sides are now preparing for a broader offensive.
“Part of the raison d’être of the next Russian offensive is probably to disrupt Ukraine’s ability to regenerate the ability to go back on the counteroffensive. So a lot will depend on how many of its reserves Ukraine has to throw in and how much they increase their numbers.” of casualties to stop that Russian offensive,” explains Justin Bronk, principal investigator for RUSI.
To a large extent it is a race of time and resources.
Will Ukraine receive the promised Western military hardware? Will Russia manage to mobilize new troops, replenish stocks and replace lost tanks?
Bronk believes that “the bad outcome, if you will, is Ukraine running out of steam and unable to recapture most of the remaining occupied territory before this new wave of Russian-trained and mobilized forces and industrial equipment begins to arrive.” get to the end of the year. And at that point, we’re heading towards, I think, a long-term plateau.”
One factor making such a stalemate more likely is President Putin’s apparent determination to press on with the war he started.
Fiona Hill, former US National Security Adviser, is grateful that Russia’s heavy losses have not deterred her:
“Putin has made it very clear that he is willing to sacrifice whatever is necessary. And that is part of the problem. And many statements and rumors are coming out that he is willing to sacrifice the 300,000 people who have been summoned.”
Could that supposed cold indifference lead us to the most catastrophic scenario: the use of nuclear weapons?
Putin has hinted at battlefield nuclear strikes in the context of an uncontrolled escalation. But maybe they’re just threats.
“Really use them [las armas nucleares] It brings almost no practical benefit at all and certainly nothing to outweigh all the costs, both in terms of immediate escalation risk, radiating things they want to hold onto and want to be a part of, and also alienating the rest of the world.” Bronk opines.
If nuclear war seems a remote prospect, so do the chances of peace, or even a ceasefire.
Russia and Ukraine mutually reject terms for a deal and, for now, are focused on territorial gains rather than diplomatic solutions.
Source: Euronews Español
