NewsLatin AmericaInvamer Poll shows the end of Petro's honeymoon

Invamer Poll shows the end of Petro’s honeymoon

The president of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, in the Casa de Narino.Mauricio Duenas Castaneda (EFE)

A little more than two months into the term of President Gustavo Petro, his honeymoon has entered a waning phase, according to the results of the traditional bimonthly survey Invamer Poll, which has studied the opinion of the five main cities in Colombia for 30 years. years. Although there are still more who approve of his management, with 46%, than those who disapprove, with 40%. The drop in his approval is evident, since at the end of August 56% supported him, but on top of everything the rejection grows, since then it was only 20%.

That rise in disapproval coincides with an increase in pessimism. When asked if things in Colombia are getting better or worse, the pessimists increase from 48% to 64%, a figure similar to the average of the last 8 years, with presidents Juan Manuel Santos and Ivan Duque. In fact, Petro’s discharge figures are almost identical to those of Duque in October 2018, at the same time of his administration. The current former president had an approval of 47% and a disapproval of 41% (this same Invamer Poll places him today with 29% favorability and 60% disfavor). They are also similar to those of Andres Pastrana in October 1998.

These figures signal the end of a moment of particular optimism that the election gave and the beginning of a government that was elected under the flags of the left and of change. Several of its flags also lose steam. For example, the percentage of people who believe that the government will be able to return their land to displaced peasants falls from 72% to 59%, a high figure but similar to that of the first year of the Duque government. Or the bet to suspend oil and gas exploration remains unpopular, with only 38% of those surveyed agreeing, with 56% disagreeing.

The reasons for the drop in optimism and government approval are difficult to discern. Some are economic and it is the subject of discussion to what extent they are due to government decisions, such as the sustained increase in inflation that was 11.4% in September, the highest in this century, or the devaluation of the peso that this Thursday exceeded for the first time in its history the value of 4,800 per dollar. But others have to do directly with the Government and its team.

For analyst Jairo Libreros, part of this is due to managing expectations. “Gustavo Petro won the presidency for many reasons, especially because he rode the wave of popular discontent against democracy. And those votes of the social outbreak were decisive. But those dissatisfied Colombians who voted for him are still waiting for solutions, alternatives and opportunities, which have not yet arrived”, says the Externado University professor.

Carlos Suarez, an analyst and political strategist, points out that the result will probably have a political impact in the short term. “The image drop is very fast for what we are used to and especially as it had started. The rise of the dollar, which impacts the psychology of citizens, the insecurity that affects the mood and uncertainty, ”he says. And that can be reflected in the short term, he says: “it leaves you with no wiggle room to do everything you wanted to do so early.”

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Indeed, the president of Congress and an ally of Petro, Roy Barreras, has said that they must take advantage of the initial political capital to carry out as many reforms as possible in the first months. For now, the government has shown signs of maintaining large majorities in Congress, in addition to being able to reach unforeseen agreements with business sectors, such as ranchers or power generation companies. It has not yet carried out any great reform; the first, the tax, has advanced without major changes in its central messages.

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