NewsUSAChina's insidious attempt to decisively influence the future of Europe

China’s insidious attempt to decisively influence the future of Europe

When Chinese President Xi Jinping landed in Moscow on March 20, 2023 for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin, China’s growing self-confidence could be felt. In his statement upon landing, the Chinese leader made it clear that he has global ambitions. “In the face of a turbulent and changing world, China stands ready to continue working with Russia,” he proclaimed, “to firmly safeguard the international order and, at its core, the UN.” He also said that he will “uphold true multilateralism, promote a multipolar world and more democracy in international relations, and contribute to making world governance more just and equitable.”

Befitting his quest to displace the United States as world leader, Xi’s meticulously choreographed state visit to Russia — his first trip abroad since his third term in power was confirmed — comes at a pivotal moment. Xi is determined to make China the central player in managing world affairs.

It is clear that the People’s Republic of China is in charge. Even amid the shows of unity and cordiality in Moscow, the handshakes in the Kremlin meant for photographers, when Putin sat across from his Chinese counterpart at a conspicuously small table and hailed China’s “colossal leap forward” He admitted feeling a little envious. The comment brought a slight smile to Xi, who responded in kind, saying he was sure Putin—his “dear friend”—will receive big support in next year’s presidential election, even though the Russian leader has yet to declare your intention to appear.

Not surprisingly, Putin launched a campaign to restore his reputation before Xi’s arrival. In an article published in the People’s Daily, he addressed the “friendly Chinese people”. He predicted the summit would be a “historic event” because it offered him a “great opportunity” to speak with “an old friend of his” Xi, with whom he “has the warmest relationship.” After noting his intense personal affinity, he noted that, as of this week’s meeting, they had seen each other exactly 40 times, “at a variety of official events and informal gatherings.” “What a joy that friends come from afar!” he exclaimed, quoting the Chinese philosopher Confucius.

Apart from the proclamations of friendship, Putin went on to explain in the article that the “decade” is nothing more than “a passing moment” in a long history, in which the two countries “have shared an old tradition of good neighborliness and cooperation ”. Their “special” and “future” relationship, he was enthusiastic about, knows no “limits” or “taboos” because “it has always been based on mutual trust and respect for the sovereignty and interests of the other party.”

Putin thus reconfirmed, implicitly, the aspiration of the two countries to have “a post-Western world order”: a “fair” multipolar system, “based on international law and not on certain rules serving the needs of the “golden billions”, “the West in general”. Of course, under the Russian and Chinese rhetoric of law and regulations, in that order, the reality is that only a few great powers are truly “sovereign” states, while the territorial integrity and independence of smaller countries situated in their “spheres of influence” in fact mean nothing. This situation became evident when, on the first anniversary of the war, the UN Assembly overwhelmingly approved a non-binding resolution demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops, an immediate end to the war and a peace agreement guaranteeing the sovereignty of Ukraine. Only seven states voted against, including the Russian Federation and Belarus, while several of Russia’s main allies, including China, Iran and India, abstained.

Now that Russia is about to assume the presidency of the UN Security Council for the month of April 2023, this gap between rhetoric and reality bodes ill. Putin and Xi’s perverse references to international “norms” and “law”, the UN Charter and Russia-China relations as a “cornerstone of regional and global stability”, particularly following charges brought by the ICC against Putin, reveal the serious impasse in which the international community finds itself as it searches for a formula to end the war in Ukraine and a sustainable international agreement for afterwards.

This is where China comes in, with its marked hostility to US dominance in world politics since the end of the Cold War. Faced with the weakness and division of the West, embodied in Brexit and the Trump presidency and increased by China’s growing economic and military might, Xi firmly believes that the international order and its governing institutions are again at stake. He believes that, thanks to unprecedented geopolitical and technological changes, “time and circumstances” favor China.

The Kremlin’s ruinous military campaign offers the Chinese leadership another magnificent “opportunity” to push for a reordering in the international balance of forces. Putin’s war is destabilizing, by nature, for international relations. However, Xi reckons that by propping up Russia, he and Putin are in a stronger position to take on their common adversary, the United States.

For example, the two countries have pledged in Moscow to further intensify their trade relations. They have also agreed to carry out more joint military exercises and undertake common infrastructure projects, such as the construction of bridges over the Amur River. China will remain one of the biggest importers of Russian oil and gas, which has helped Moscow finance its invasion. And Chinese companies supply the high-tech and consumer goods that Russians desperately need.

Consequently, China, which jealously guards its independence, has much more influence than Russia at war. This is the context in which Xi, having consolidated his power base inside China, has begun to play a more energetic and dynamic role in Europe and to present himself as a mediator capable of resolving the Ukrainian conflict through peaceful means.

By emphasizing the alleged “legitimate interests and security fears of all countries”, the China document blurs the roles of the aggressor and the aggressed and instead implicitly justifies Russia’s illegal invasion. Many European officials, like many of their Ukrainian and American counterparts, are convinced that premature peace negotiations would be detrimental to Ukrainian sovereignty. In other words, Xi, while pretending to be a neutral broker, reinforces his support for President Putin.

Worse yet, when it asserts that “the security of a region should not be achieved by strengthening or expanding military blocs” and condemns “bloc confrontation” while advocating “peace and stability” in the long term, Beijing is repeating Moscow’s accusations against NATO. What’s more, what he does is effectively support Putin’s erroneous and dangerous arguments that he had to invade Ukraine because of the threat posed by an ever-expanding Atlantic Alliance.

On March 6, 2023, Xi, using the same language as Putin, declared at the Chinese Communist Party Conference that “the Western countries, led by the United States,” “have completely contained, besieged and suffocated China.” Ultimately, the ultimate villain is, in the view of both, the United States, with its weight throughout the world through soft power and hard power.

Of course, European leaders are divided on China. Some, like Germany, want to maintain their close trade ties with Beijing. But Xi’s growing agreement with Putin and his reluctance to condemn Russia’s war in Ukraine has caused him to lose credibility and heightened suspicion and hostility across the Euro-Atlantic community. After all, we still don’t know if China is going to offer military aid to Russia or not.

On the substance, Xi’s visit to Moscow has changed little. But the symbolism of the summit is significant. The Chinese challenge to the West is clear. Xi’s peace plan is unlikely to amount to anything more than a propaganda stance. But it is very possible that China will play an important role not only when the peace agreement is reached, but also in the post-war reconstruction.

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