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Brazil, between democracy and authoritarianism

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro during a campaign rally in Santos.Andre Penner (AP)

It is very easy to fit President Jair Bolsonaro into the contemporary wave of authoritarian leaders who came to power through the vote. His anti-political discourse, his attacks on the press, civil society and the Judiciary, his determination to make it clear that he alone represents the Brazilian people and their values, his lack of commitment to recognize a potential electoral result that does not favor him, they are all elements that take Bolsonaro directly to the pantheon of contemporary authoritarianism.

The big question for Sunday is what will be the fate of this authoritarian leadership in Brazil. There are basically two results that contemporary history teaches us about these leaders. Trump, Orban, Ortega, Erdogan, Modi and so many others all came to power by election. Some were defeated in their first candidacy for re-election and democracy was able to demonstrate its resilience in the face of these phenomena. Others were reelected. And those reelected, in all cases, managed to implement their authoritarian project in such a way that it no longer seems possible for an opposition group to win.

History is the best reference for making decisions and it is precisely with these clear precedents in hand that Brazilians will vote. The dilemma is between placing Brazil on the list of democracies that resisted and defeated presidents without any commitment to democratic institutions or associating the country with those who enthroned leaders who manage to wear down democratic institutions to perpetuate themselves in power.

Bolsonaro entered politics in 1988, the year Brazil enacted its most democratic constitution. His political life was built in opposition to all the democratic values ​​represented by that Constitution. If, as most polls indicate, Bolsonaro is defeated this Sunday in the first or second round, it would be a victory for the values ​​crystallized in the 1988 Constitution.

But precisely because history produces lessons for winners and losers, at this point, after seeing the pathetic and dangerous show carried out by Trump and his followers on January 6, 2021 in the United States Congress, it is already possible to know that Bolsonaro does not I would accept eventual defeat. The current president has publicly declared that any result other than his victory in the first round cannot be considered normal (although the polls show an advantage of between 10 and 15 points over his opponent, former president Lula da Silva). Bolsonaro has already called on the military to carry out an “independent” monitoring of the elections and brought together foreign ambassadors to say that there is fraud in the Brazilian electoral system.

Thus, it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which Bolsonaro loses the elections and peacefully accepts his possible defeat, or leads a democratic transition of power to the elected. It would be good to understand what Bolsonaro learned from Trump’s failure on January 6. His actions and recent statements by him in no way indicate that the lesson learned is that democratic institutions, in the end, prevail. Therefore, everything indicates that we could expect more violent reactions and more outlandish strategies to challenge the result and prevent the peaceful transition of power in Brazil.

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It is difficult to predict exactly what the scenarios and movements will be. In Brazil, elections are administered and conducted by the Judiciary. The Judiciary is also the one that most faced the president’s authoritarian outbursts in the last four years. In this way, it will surely be against the Judiciary that Bolsonaro would articulate his reaction.

The reaction would hardly follow a traditional coup script. They will not necessarily be tanks directed at the Judiciary. The backlash is sure to start with fierce rhetoric, articulating fear, religious values ​​and a call for supporters to act with violence.

The scenario of a reaction with this script is the most likely. Institutions are preparing for this and security measures have been taken. It is also expected that the international community will rush to recognize the result announced by the Electoral Justice of Brazil.

But, just like in the United States, this process in Brazil will leave open wounds. Brazilian history has been that of pretending that it is possible to erase wounds with oblivion. Even before the elections, Bolsonaro’s allies are already talking about arranging an amnesty for the current president. And in this case, once again, history must be our main teacher. Anyone who gets involved in attacks on democracy should know that he will have an appointment with Justice. Thus, Brazil could be fully proud of having defeated an authoritarian president with the full exercise of a democratic Constitution.

Peter Abramovay He is Executive Director for Latin America and the Caribbean of the Open Society Foundations.

Source: EL PAIS

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