NewsLatin AmericaANALYSIS | Ecuador is in trouble and its president, Guillermo Lasso, could pay the price

ANALYSIS | Ecuador is in trouble and its president, Guillermo Lasso, could pay the price

(CNN) — Ecuador was known as the Island of Peace in the 1980s, compared to its neighbors Colombia and Peru, some of the largest cocaine producers in the world.

But a deadly escalation of violence has changed that reputation in recent years, as the Andean country has recorded some of the highest murder rates in the region, according to human rights groups.

In April alone, Ecuador saw a prison riot, explosions in the port city of Guayaquil and the deaths of at least nine people during an armed attack on a fishing port.

Civilians are trapped between criminal groups fighting for control of the cocaine supply chain, which passes through Ecuador, says Glaeldys Gonzalez, an expert on organized crime with the International Crisis Group.

And the Ecuadorian authorities have had trouble dealing with this public security crisis “in an efficient manner because it is mired in [una] political crisis,” says Gonzalez.

Ecuador’s President Guillermo Lasso is at the center of this storm, and his popularity has plummeted amid widespread discontent with spiraling crime rates.

“Lasso hasn’t kept” campaign promises of lower taxes and more foreign direct investment, said Luis Ortiz, a political analyst and consultant for Ecuadorian Development. It has also not been able to convey a successful strategy to stop the violence, he added.

Before President Guillermo Lasso took office, Ecuador had already become a key transit hub for cocaine due to its location between Peru and Colombia. (Credit: Guillermo Legaria/Getty Images)

Lasso faces an impeachment vote in the coming weeks over allegations of embezzlement before taking office by opposition lawmakers, charges Lasso denies.

Lasso’s Bad Hour

It wasn’t always so hard for Lasso, a self-made millionaire, who ran on a platform of liberal values ​​before coming to power in 2021, promising more foreign direct investment and fostering entrepreneurship. The now-candidate was praised for a successful covid-19 vaccination campaign at the start of his term, enjoying high approval ratings at the time.

But soon after his tenure went downhill.

Lasso survived an impeachment attempt amid weeks-long protests over rising fuel and food prices last year, and his name appeared in the “Pandora papers,” a 2021 expose of financial secrets and foreign dealings of dozens of heads of state and public officials.

Ecuadorian law prohibits public servants from having assets in tax havens. Lasso told Ecuador’s legislative commission that he is investigating him, that he had not evaded taxes and that his tax trajectory was legally supported.

Opposition assembly members raise banners in protest of the country’s problems such as migration, the health crisis, femicide and the increase in violence during a hearing in Quito, on April 26. (Credit: Karen Toro/Reuters)

But opposition lawmakers have renewed their efforts to remove him, and the president’s popular support is evaporating as crime soars.

The dramatic rise in crime that has fueled anger against his government is a trend that predates his presidency. Before Lasso took office, Ecuador had already become a key transit hub for cocaine due to its location between Peru and Colombia, and the dollarization of its economy in 2000 made the country an easy place to launder money, say analysts.

But the controls needed to stop organized crime were outpaced by austerity measures implemented by his predecessor, Lenin Moreno, which led to mass layoffs in the public sector and budget cuts, Ortiz told CNN.

“The judicial system, the institution that oversees wire transfers and bank transactions, they don’t even have the money to make photocopies, let alone track transactions that could potentially be linked to organized crime,” he said.

Denunciations of corruption have also tarnished the courts and the Police: the United States withdrew visas from high-ranking officers of the Ecuadorian State security forces, allegedly linked to drug trafficking, and from several judges and lawyers.

Members of unions and civil society groups march on International Workers’ Day to demand that Ecuador’s President Guillermo Lasso, who is facing impeachment, leave office, on May 1, 2023. (Credit: Karen Toro/Reuters)

Lasso, who has a weak mandate in Congress and has struggled to build coalitions, has implemented several states of emergency to curb bloodshed in the country, which has seen hundreds killed in brutal prison riots between rival gangs, to very little success, critics say.

His approach has gotten messier after the second impeachment attempt. Last week, he declared organized crime groups terrorists, a move that has empowered the military to go after the gangs, despite allegations of corruption casting a shadow over security forces.

His acceptance of his predecessor’s austerity package has seen Lasso incentivize the private sector to intervene on security issues, which Ortiz described as a disaster.

This includes Lasso’s recent authorization of civilians to use weapons, a move that made “private security companies [se convirtieran] in the first to raise their hand to say: ‘hey, no way, what we are seeing right now is that the criminals are more equipped than the police,’” Ortiz said.

Worn out relationships

The mood against Lasso further soured this year when Ecuadorian news outlet La Posta accused the president’s brother-in-law, Danilo Carrera, of corruption, including a money-for-executive scheme and phony energy contracts.

Following the report, Lasso asked prosecutors to investigate Carrera for his business and personal relationship with Ruben Cherres, whom authorities tried to arrest but was found murdered in late March.

CNN has reached out to Carrera for comment.

The center-right Lasso is one of the few friends Washington has in the region, but even that relationship may be unraveling.

While several US senators praised Lasso and Secretary of State Antony Blinken highlighted the strong US partnership with the country during a 2021 visit, in April a group of US congressmen sent a letter President Joe Biden, urging him to “reassess our government’s close relationship with the Lasso government” and investigate the allegations of corruption surrounding Lasso and his associates.

Lasso would be replaced by Vice President Alfredo Borrero if impeached, but last week he suggested to the Financial Times that he would not go that far, saying he would invoke a constitutional clause that would force elections for his office and Congress.

The gambit would see Lasso rule by presidential decree and hold an election in six months, and critics can see why Lasso might be tempted to go nuclear.

“If the opposition has the 92 votes they need to get rid of him, they will push that button and give themselves six months to find a way out,” said Guillaume Long, Ecuador’s former foreign minister who is now a senior policy analyst at the Center for Economic and Political Research.

If snap elections are triggered, Lasso, 67, said he will run again despite losing a lot of political capital. In February, opposition parties won key mayoral positions in Quito and Guayaquil and a Lasso-backed referendum on eight reforms, including one allowing criminal extradition, failed.

As the time for Lasso’s next move ticks away, violence and economic insecurity are driving more Ecuadorians to leave the country, with statistics showing thousands heading north across the treacherous Darien Gap this year.

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